German weekend

[chriscol]

For those who are waiting: i'll have no play on the bayern-hamburg match today.

i am leaning to the over, but the hdc is too close to call. hamburg played great before the break but you dont know what they come up with now. they are plain awful playing in münchen (only 5 pts in last 23 years). Bayern usually comes hot out of the gate at beginning of season or after break..they had decent test results, but ballack is missing due to yellow-card suspension.
for me it looks like a one goal bayern victory, but that gives me no real value.
there are much better oportunities tomorrow.
I'll post them later today.

 

[chriscol]

Saturday:

1.Bundesliga:

Start in 2nd half of season:

Nürnberg- Kaiserslautern: Nürnberg pk,-0.5 @ 1.81 !! 2 units!!

Both teams are in no-mens land in the table, but Nürnberg usually quite strong at home. This is more a play against Kaiserslautern. They have 7 injured players, among them 6 key players, which includes their complete offense. So i see them struggeling big time to today to get on the board. Nürnberg at home should be strong enough to get a good start in the new year. Line is in some places down to -0.5, which would also be a play for me (just like the extra safety from pinni)

Rostock- Freiburg: ROstock pk,-0.5 @ 1.79

As i said already in another thread. here are the two bottom clubs with almost their last chance to get back on track. Rostock got an awful home record, but i still think this is misleading. They are a decent team away and IMO will have a chancer to climb out of the relegation zone. Freiburg meanwhile is plain awful overall..they have almost given up at the end of last year and i am looking very strongly at the first Rostock home win today.

Wolfsburg- Dortmund: Wolfsburg pk,0.5 @1.79

Wolfsburg is one of the top teams at home, while dortmund is struggeling big time. that will not change as key players like rosidzcy, ewerthon and evalnilson are still injured. i like the safety net with the pk,-0.5 here as i think dortmund will be quite strong on the defensive end (just a feeling) and it might end in a low scoring draw, but the value is definetely with the better team and the home team.

Gladbach- Bielefeld: Gladbach -0.5 @ 1.82

This line dropped massive overnight in some places without reason, but you can still find gladbach -0.5. Gladbach got 6 new players during the break and had very good test-matches. they seem to be very motivated to vome strong out of the gate. that should be possible against Bielefels, which struggled end of last year a bit and should not be strong enough to get points today.

more to follow in 5 min.

 

[chriscol]

Mainz- Stuttgart: STuttgart pk,-0.5 @ 1.89 and under 2.5 goals @1.93

Stuttgart is simply the better team, while Mainz had a surprising start, but started to struggle at the end of the year. i expect mainz to get into relegation trouble and they should not be strong enough to beat stuttgart (even at home), which is looking to charge to the top-spots.
The under is obvious as both teams have strong defenses and are low scoring on offense. (Especially Mainz at home and STuttgart in away games) it looks like a 1-0 or 2-0 to me.

Schalke- Bremen: Over 2.5,3 @1.83

i have a leaning to schalke on the site, as they are definetely the stronger team, but i have a strange feeling here. Schalke played some funny games at home. away they are much more consistens. anyway the play is the over as both teams are well capable of scoring and i expect them both to do so. That give the over a good chance. Bremen will definetely not go defensive minded in the game (it's not their nature) so it should be a fun game to watch.

BOL to all

 

[acw]

I love this one:

This line dropped massive overnight in some places without reason

Should you not be saying:"I know this one has value, but how come others know too?"

 

[quantumleap]

I didn't even think about the under in the Rostock-Freiburg match considering these 2 teams. I'll try to keep that in mind when looking at them in the future.

 

[chriscol]

a mixed saturday, but looking on the results it was good not to loose too much.

Sunday:

1.Bundesliga:

Bochum-Berlin: over 2.5,3 @ 2.04

Bochum played some high scoring games at home lately and they cannot hold back today as a home win is much needed. most of the teams ahead of them have won yesterday, so they cannot afford to loose in fight against relegation. Berlin is the strongest away team in league. they will also go for the win here and should score against a sometimes suspect bochum defense.
Not sure about the side here, but plenty of goals

Hannover- Leverkusen: under 2.5,3 goals @ 1.88

different story here: both teams play solid defense and i expect them both to play a "no-loss" type of game...defense comes first as both teams will look for a draw.


2.Bundesliga:

Duisburg- Dresden: Duisburg -1 @ 2.03
Cottbus- Köln: Köln pk,-0.5 @ 1.98

Both top teams will go on a solid start in the year.

BOL to all

 

[quantumleap]

I've also noticed that you have an affinity toward Schalke and I plan to pay more attention to them. Nice call on the 2-1 over.

 

[chriscol]

after a very solid sunday, now

Rec so far for the season:

1.Bundesliga 57-34 +16.239 units
2.Bundesliga 19-19 -2.481 units
Regionalliga 23-30 -7.037 units

Total 99-83 +6.721

 

[jwunderdog]

Nice, bounce back yesterday.